Remember that it’s not the popular vote that counts, it’s the electoral college, and current polling gives Trump a 2-in-3 chance of winning the college:
https://www.economist.com/interactive/us-2024-election/prediction-model/president
Me reading this link getting 2016 flashbacks
I’d say Biden is in an even worse position, his push to the far right on immigration, economics, genocide etc. because he thinks he has voters over a barrel has alienated and demoralized a lot of voters. He’s quite literally to the right of Ronald Reagan at this point on so many issues, it’s a tall order to ask non-conservatives to vote for him when he’s literally just a Republican.
His inability to change course very well might cost him the election, and even if he does squeak out a win it guaruntees that the Democratic party will continue to see moving right and supporting genocide as the way to win elections.
US democracy is kind of a walking corpse at this point I think. People just don’t want to acknowledge what the problems are and think kicking the can down the road some more will help.
This is why things are shit and nothing changes. You can’t just show up to vote for the president and then fuck off for four years. You have to vote in every local election too. Its not a walking corpse, the flies just know when nothing is around the shit.
You’re right that we need to vote in all elections to enable more progressive politics. The problem is even when we try to do that, establishment democrats come in with millions of dollars in PAC money to back the establishment candidate instead and keep the political outsiders out. Jessica Cisneros would have been amazing, but Pelosi did everything she could to keep the corrupt goon Cuellar in place, who is now indicted on 14 federal corruption charges. Of course Pelosi still backs him, full-throatedly.
It’s not going to get better until we stop the corruption and end the legalized bribes by getting money out of politics. Until then it’s just a dog and pony show to keep us distracted enough to not be in open rebellion in the streets over how badly the working class is getting robbed. And the elites are in a panic because they are losing that grip…it’s going to be a wild election season in America to say the least.
538 has it much closer https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
538 has been unreliable for several election cycles, though…
For those who forgot polls don’t mean shit and only voting matters:
Polls are for pundits.
Vote in November.
I don’t care if Biden’s lead rises to 3,141,592,653 points. GET OUT AND VOTE!!! Make sure you are registered, get your friends to check their registration, go and vote when the time comes. Democracy is literally in our hands.
That sort of lead sounds irrational
Nah, that’s a natural number. An irrational lead would be if he lead by π or something like that.
A few orders of magnitude off, but that’s the first 10 digits of pi.
My dumb brain was too busy trying to make a joke about irrational numbers to not even notice one had been made for me.
It’s all good. My brain’s pretty idiotic most of the time, so I can relate.
