- cross-posted to:
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- cross-posted to:
- [email protected]
“The president single-handedly wiped out Americans’ retirement savings overnight and subjected businesses to intense whiplash with his increasingly erratic and chaotic policies that continue to drive consumer and business uncertainty.”
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It’s 100% they are just too scared to say that
You can’t say anything is 100% with a chaotic and erratic president. There’s always a chance that Trump will undo everything next week and things will stabilise for a short while. That chance might be very low, but it effectively invalidates 100% prediction.
Ok, 95%. Trump undoing things doesn’t actually help “confidence in the market” though, it might even cause or chaos shorter term.
There’s also an even more remote chance Republicans in Congress grow a spine and take away Trump’s ability to set tariffs or the Supreme Court rules the “emergency” invalid.
I’m afraid you’re wrong here actually. Being arbitrary and mercurial means no one will risk investing in the US, as policies may be created or undone at any moment. The only way this goes away is simply that he goes away. The risk is what is creating the certainty here.
It still isn’t 100%
The Kennedy’s made their fortune shorting the US economy during the Great depression.
Everything Trump has done has been calculated. I’d be willing to bet my left testicle that his gambling most of his fortune on heavily leverages shorts. He’s trying to create the greatest possible depression because that will make him the most amount of money.
He knows exactly when he will cut his bullshit so he will settle his short right before making the announcement. Then with all the money he essentially stole from the population he will then buy up large chunks of the economy (and so will his buddies).
Once capital is even more heavily controlled by the upper classes the only recourse left will be violent revolution. All speculation. But that’s what I would be doing if I was trump trying to install a true autocracy.
If this is what it takes for republicans to never hold even so much as a broken toilet seat, well it sure does suck harder’n a black fucking hole… but it seems this is how we have to learn.
If they somehow blame Biden for this or OBAMA, we need reconsider human evolution.
It is truly amazing what people have pinned on Obama. I have seen several people that blamed Obama’s lax border security for 9/11 happening and I really do wish I was joking.
Trump has already blamed Biden for the “shitty economy” he inherited.
I wouldn’t bet on Republicans learning a goddamn thing. They’ve had plenty of time and examples and theyre still fucking stupid, obviously given the situation we’re in.
Best you can hope is nonvoters realize they’ve been idiots and decide to not be idiots anymore.
Y’all vote in a republican whenever you’re ready to crash the economy and lose your property to the profiteers buying it for pennies. It’s really something, how it’s like clockwork.
By “y’all”, are you referring to every person that voted this election, or only those that didn’t vote Harris? Y’all seem to be of the impression that Americans is a monolith, and y’all ought to know better than that. 
They’re talking about how the country voted in Trump. Again.
Most people share some responsibility for it. Some more than others of course.
There’s no such thing as not voting. You either vote by voting, or you sit on the couch and double the value of some diehard’s vote.
Republican presidents count on you falling for their lies about working to improve the economy, when it’s plain to see they screw America.
The Federal Reserve now projects -3.7% GDP growth in Q1 2025. The 2008 recession was -2.6%, and covid was -2.2, for comparison.
Do you have a source? Closest of what I can find is GDPNow https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow . But it is neither an official estimate nor from the federal reserve.
And note that the Atlanta Fed model has been widely misinterpreted. Imports have surged in anticipation of tariffs, which skews the model (i.e. the exports-imports factor in GDP).
That is the federal reserve. It’s composed of 12 district banks and that’s one of them.
I thought federal reserve refers to the federal reserve board. And I am also surprised that their website don’t get .gov domains.
Not trying to argue with you, the name "fedral reserve is inheritly ambiguous. I am just stating my reason.
And I am also surprised that the fedral reserve banks’ website don’t get .gov domains.
The fed is explicitly not a government agency. It is meant to be independent by design.
Yeah, it’s definitely confusing, and the news is always loose with the terminology.
The Federal Reserve is the entire system. The board sets policy and the 12 district banks execute it. It’s this weird quasi-governmental thing. Nominally it’s supposed to be independent and not part of the government even though it was created by an act of Congress and the board is appointed by the president. The idea is that by making it independent, it’ll be free from political influence and can focus on its mission, including making tough decisions that will cause pain in the short term.
Consider this too…Q1 ended on March 31st. They are predicting that drop before all this tariff shit got started.
Hell Biden was president for 20 of the 90 days in that quarter.
So you’re saying it’s Bidens fault! /s
That… Doesn’t seem good if I’m being totally honest
-3.7% so far.
They predict -3.7% if yesterday was somehow the end of it, but we know it’s not.
-3.7% would be a dream compared to what’s actually likely.
Q1 runs from 1/1 - 3/31. Q2 will be worse if he doesn’t repeal the tariffs.
Trump pulled a Mario on the billionaires lmao 🤣
And y’all complaining
So repubs are alientating themselves from their traditional business base too. That leaves what? Nut jobs in rvs covered in trump signs?
Maybe I am stupid but I feel like things like this will be looked at as silly in the future because clearly we have already hit the recession. The only question that we have left at this point is if it will evolve into a full blown depression.
Why does liking things reveal more comments?
All we need now is a massive man made natural disaster to strike to make it another great depression. Luckily there isn’t any terrible climate related issue that’s on the verge of causing a catastrophe or anything.
That, and good thing there isn’t a new pandemic brewing in birds and livestock.
Thank god 80% of the bees we use to pollinate all our food didn’t die this last month…
At least we don’t have a measles outbreak and an anti-vaxxer in charge
We should consider ourselves lucky there isn’t a genocide happening in the middle east with US backing.
If they say 60% odds when it’s obviously 100%, how does one go about making money on the spread?
The reason is that Trump can reverse the tariffs tomorrow. Or a court could freeze them if it rules trump acted illegally.
But it does seem that they might be doing some serious insider trading on the market’s volatility. Its funny that until 2024 this was illegal. But the supreme court wanted this. So here we are.
Even if he would reverse the tariffs, the rest of the world is tired of this shit! The US showed that they are no reliable partner and always 4 years away from a possible circus.
Forex? If you have USD, you could change it to EUR for example. You could also buy bonds or crypto or whatever, though US bonds might be falling too.
Personally I just keep all my money in funds and robo-advisors. This way there’s someone whose job it is to allocate the money, and they hear the news and can act faster than you.
Are you certain that the samething isn’t going to happen to foreign currencies? I feel like the U.S. enters recession, the global economy enters recession.
Are there any economies that are truly self-sufficient?
The rest of the world is hopefully coming together a bit and doing trade without the US.
Are there any economies that are truly self-sufficient?
China is trying. I feel like at least some industries there would be fine even if the US collapses.
Considering just how massive China is, they probably have the best shot at a truly independent “internal world” economy
This is against what crypto bros are saying, but from what I see that whenever stock is crashing so is Bitcoin.
That’s the thing here. Bitcoin is holding up fairly well so far
If it can prove that it returns better gains than stocks AND weathers downturns better than stocks. Well…
I’d love to see donvict, fElon, Lutnick, Thiel, Vance and especially Navarro forced to live in poverty for a while.
60% chance of recession, 40% chance of a depression. “The Greatest Depression”
Tremendous, really. Like nothing ever seen before.
A golden age is coming!
Even if things just to recover to where they started trumsk will claim it as a giant win.
Frustratingly true
I’ve been putting off making my Roth contribution because it’s gonna lose value. Tried to add the cash to my portfolio the other day over the web interface. It wouldn’t let me. Had to call and the broker asked me if I was sure. Yeah, it’s for my tax return dude I don’t like it either.
Blood for the blood God.
No one cares about rich people losing money. If they were smart, they would have sold their stocks when Krasnov was sworn in.
He was already talking about fucking shit up with tariffs while campaigning.
Smart people don’t sell stocks and shares when markets crash. They buy instead.
So much fud out there apparently. Time will tell how bad this gets, but this is pretty darn bad.
How was Thursday and Friday not a recession? I lost > 10% of my 401k in 2 days.
It took 4 years to get to where it was since I stopped contributing right after the 2020 panic. 4 years of happily let my money do what it should, BAM wiped out in 2 fucking days.
10% so far unfortunately.
Recessions officially require a slowdown of an economy over a longer period of time. Usually the stock market has nothing to do with it, though it can be a canary in the coal mine for it.
A recession has more to do with unemployment rate rising, negative GDP growth and consumer spending indexes falling.
Essentially it’s just a fancy way of saying the economy is slowing down in every category.
The stock market is a rich person’s playground in this day and age mostly.
The stock market is a rich person’s playground in this day and age mostly.
Unfortunately, if they do poorly, THAT definitely “trickles down”.
it’s not an exact measure, but the rule of thumb for a recession is 2 quarters of negative growth
I’ve Lost 15% since this shitshow of president started fucking with things.
Came here to note that S&P has been down over 16% since the clown took the WH and the circus started back up again.
Get your 401k out of stocks for now. Most plans have money market or other options you can exchange for.
That’s the dumbest advice ever! That’s how you lose all your money. Recession is the perfect time to buy even more stocks and shares. Don’t get out, get in!
Recession is a good time - at the bottom.
We’re still at the top.
You guys have fun losing all your money, though. Like the person I replied to complained about.
What are you going to convert your stocks into Euros? Renminbi? USD? Bitcoin? There is just a lot of uncertainty, and I wouldn’t recommend anyone selling everything.
The only one losing money is you.
…how?
Selling near the top and buying near the bottom…?
You’re doing the exact opposite.
Howso?
Panic drop out of the market after stocks went down some percent, great advice.
Just do nothing and keep your rates (or however US 401k works).
Time in the market beats timing the market
I guess. Other option is to ride it all the way down. I got mostly out after the election. I got the rest of the way out this year.
