I’ve been thinking about it a bit this week before this research, but one possible timeline of events in the mind of a low-information voter could be:

• Trudeau bad! (Thanks to relentless Conservative campaigning)
• Carbon tax bad! (Same as above)
• Trudeau leaves
• Carbon Tax Carney! Carbon Tax Carney!
• Carney is nominated
• Carney cuts sets the carbon tax to 0%
• Price of oil also happens to crash, lowering gas prices significantly
• Carbon Tax Carney?