POLITICO analyzes all the data on the most likely presidential runoff races ahead of next month’s existential vote.

All eyes are on Romania.

The country goes to the polls on May 4 in the first round of a controversial presidential election, after concerns over Russian interference triggered an annulment of the original vote last November.

Now that the Moscow-backed ultranationalist Călin Georgescu has been disqualified from the do-over election, George Simion, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), has vaulted into the polling lead ahead of a vote that threatens to shake the EU and NATO if Bucharest pivots off its pro-European path. (…)