As of July 2025, the Russian economy stands in a state of profound deterioration, warped and exhausted by over three years of full-scale war against Ukraine, and a decade of increasingly aggressive foreign policy that has triggered repeated rounds of Western sanctions, capital flight and strategic isolation. While outward appearances have been masked by Kremlin propaganda and creative accounting, the underlying economic fundamentals now suggest a system under escalating strain. The war has becom
Structural Disintegration (12–24 months): Key sectors—particularly energy, defence manufacturing, and logistics—face system-wide failures due to technological decay and manpower depletion. Inflation surges, and real incomes plummet.
Political-Economic Crisis (2+ years): Economic conditions begin to catalyse political instability, regional disobedience and elite fragmentation. Capital flight accelerates. The system becomes ungovernable except through martial rule and widespread purges.
I take this as Vlad can hold on at most 3 more years.
There are so many countries even further down this path of collapse whose leaders hold on for long long periods. I mean if Russia follows the Syria recipe, then Putin’s children will rule for decades after he dies.