I agree that Silwa wouldn’t normally win, but if you have centrists voting for Cuomo and Adams, some centrists and left of that voting for Mamdani, the 300,000+ voters out of a million that voted for Silwa last election may come closer than one would expect.
Hopefully it’ll be 40% Mamdani, 20, 20, 20. But if it appears close I can see Cuomo or Adams "endorsing the other and dropping hoping to get a chance
I agree that Silwa wouldn’t normally win, but if you have centrists voting for Cuomo and Adams, some centrists and left of that voting for Mamdani, the 300,000+ voters out of a million that voted for Silwa last election may come closer than one would expect.
Hopefully it’ll be 40% Mamdani, 20, 20, 20. But if it appears close I can see Cuomo or Adams "endorsing the other and dropping hoping to get a chance
sliwa is polling at 7% in the latest poll
Even if we assume he get doubled that like 15%
The remainder split 3 way evenly is about 28%
sliwa would have to win like 26% then have the 3 split evenly 24.6 + 24.6 + 24.6
Extremely rare for that to even be possible.
My bets are 60% chance Mamdani wins, 35% cuomo win, 4% adams win, 1% sliwa win.