The Labour party has won a majority of seats in the 2024 UK General Elections, and Keir Starmer is expected to replace Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister. The Conservatives, in power for the last fourteen years, have suffered a rout, losing over two-thirds of their seats.
i hope this is an omen for what is to happen in the US
The US is going to have Trump. Biden is too senile to be president again and people know it. That last debate probably demotivated many people to even go vote and they won’t be voting for alternative candidates.
Maybe that’ll teach people to vote for independents and the DNC to stop propping up geriatrics.
nah he can be a better president than trump from his death bed
Have you heard Trump?
And the trump supporters are like “omg yeah you’re so right, wow, isn’t he clever”
The people considering voting or considering voting for Biden are a completely different demographic from the people voting for Trump, so this comparison is meaningless.
It is?
I think it’s important to note that the primary reason the conservative party lost many of their seats is because their vote was split between them, and an even more right wing party led by Nigel Farage. It wasn’t because of a huge shift to the left (or at least the centre left position the labour party occupy right now).
In my constituency for example, if you put the conservative + reform votes together, they would have beaten the nearest competitor by a country mile.
i think the primary reason was that the tories were a tragic, worthless mess and the reform racists were there to pick up the protest vote and the lib dems, the others. the low turn out were the tories that couldn’t even be bothered.
i see the republicans in a very similar situation
That’s what I originally thought would be the case. But, just statistically (looking at voter share here):
2019: Cons: 43.6% Lab: 32.1% LD: 11.6% SNP: 3.9%
2024: Lab: 33.7% Cons: 23.7% Reform: 14.3% LD: 12.2% (Weirdly, wikipedia has yet to include reform in their share ranking had to use BBC)
Labour picked up less than 2% more of the vote share. Reform took the vast majority of the tory lead away.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m glad the tories are out. But, it’s mostly because reform split the vote and Labour were second place in most constituencies. This is important to bear in mind while the conservatives sort themselves out to decide how they deal with not being right wing enough…
By that statement though, the LibDems split the left vote and so if your going to compare, you’ll need to add the liberal vote to the Labour as that’s where they would go if LibDems disappeared.
You could be right, but I am not so sure.
In terms of percentage, the lib dems made a smaller gain than labour. I’d also suggest that while maybe some of those votes came from wavering labour voters, I expect that at least a similar number would have also come from the tories. I don’t think the lib dems split the vote any more than they normally do.
Reform, while not new, last time round they did not compete against the tories. This time, they did and the result is clear.