Summary

Denmark’s Defense Intelligence Service warns that Russia could launch a large-scale war in Europe within five years if NATO appears weak or divided, especially if the U.S. does not intervene.

The report outlines a timeline where Russia could attack a neighboring country within six months, escalate to a regional Baltic conflict in two years, and potentially engage NATO-wide by 2029.

The assessment comes as Trump pressures NATO members to increase defense spending and has suggested the U.S. might not defend allies who fail to meet financial commitments.

      • AHemlocksLie@lemmy.zip
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        2 months ago

        Poor widdle Russia had no agency, NO CHOICE, but to invade. They were OBLIGATED to violate the Budapest Memorandum and attempt to seize Ukraine.

      • Flying Squid@lemmy.world
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        2 months ago

        Believe it or not, the U.S. cannot force the Russian military to cross its own border into a third country.

        • grue@lemmy.world
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          2 months ago

          No, it’s still a fucking lie even then. Claiming that Putin was somehow “forced” to invade another sovereign country because the US was some kind of boogeyman is purely demented, ass-backwards abuser “logic.”

          • eagleeyedtiger@lemmy.nz
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            2 months ago

            I wouldn’t put it past Trump to make a deal with Putin so that he gets Greenland and can mine the fuck out of it’s untapped mineral resources.

        • Habahnow@sh.itjust.works
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          2 months ago

          The new Axis powers of Russia, China, North Korea and U.S.A against the European powers. 10 years ago that would seem ridiculous, now, not too far fetched.

          • SlopppyEngineer@lemmy.world
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            2 months ago

            USA’s secretary of defense is already saying that Ukraine should let go of the occupied territories, will not be allowed in NATO and will not get any security guarantees. Basically saying to let Russia win and opening the door for more invasions by Russia.

    • einkorn@feddit.org
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      2 months ago

      I do not have an English translation but in this interview a lieutenant general of the German Bundeswehr says that they are observing that not all new supplies are being pushed to the Ukrainian front lines and instead new stockpiles are being created.

      My personal expectation is that Putin will attempt one more push in Ukraine once mud season is over, take what he can get and then agree to another peace deal (Minsk 3 anyone?). He will then take some time to restructure and reinforce the military before again “coming to the aid of suppressed Russian minorities”, this time in places like Georgia, Moldova or Armenia. Ukraine is off the table because they will use the time to reinforce as well.

    • AllNewTypeFace@leminal.space
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      2 months ago

      If they capture Ukraine, they will have a fresh pool of conscripts, not to mention Ukraine’s impressive military technology.

  • Omgboom@lemmy.zip
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    2 months ago

    Man Europe needs to build up their military quick. Too long you’ve relied on the US but now the US is unreliable depending on who is in office

  • wax@feddit.nu
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    2 months ago

    This is about how quickly the Russian war machine and economy can rebuild their capability to attack again. IIRC the report by the Danish Intelligence Service assumes that the Ukraine war stops now and that Europe does not increase its defensive capabilities.

  • DicJacobus@lemmy.world
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    2 months ago

    Major war already started 3 years ago. Europe sat on its hands, and America is looking for the door.

  • hperrin@lemmy.ca
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    2 months ago

    Boy, it sure would be bad if the US population had voted a Russian stooge into the presidency for the next four years. Oh wait…

    • grue@lemmy.world
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      2 months ago

      You’re half right: it’s ridiculous because they did start a major war in Europe in the past 5 years.

  • kandoh@reddthat.com
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    2 months ago

    Either France or the UK can easily fill in. Both have nuclear submarines. Mutually assured destruction baby.

    • Zron@lemmy.world
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      2 months ago

      France and the UK’s nuclear arsenal is minuscule compared to the US stockpile.

      And a lot of the nukes at NATO bases are on loan from the US, so if the US pulls out there will not be nearly as many bombs close to Russia.

      Anyone insane enough to start a nuclear war may decide that absorbing a hundred or so nukes isn’t so bad when they have hundreds of Cold War era bunkers and thousands of their own nukes.

  • nomoredrama@lemmy.world
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    2 months ago

    With what troops and hardware? This is ridiculous. I mean if Putin has a few working nukes, sure he could launch them. But he doesn’t have anything else left. It’s all been destroyed.

    • bier@feddit.nl
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      2 months ago

      Russia has started up a war economy, scaling up production of weapons, tanks, etc.

      Putin probably waits untill Trump destroys NATO and is just taking his time to prepare.

      The only reason Ukraine has been holding on for this long is because all the stuff they got from the US and EU. If that stops it’s not going to last long.

      Pete Hegseth already completely fucked Ukraine by saying they need to give up on joining NATO and just accept that Russia can keep all the occupied areas. It’s like the Trump administration just wants to kiss Putin’s ass.

      • DicJacobus@lemmy.world
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        2 months ago

        the weaker NATO gets, the more likely we see nuclear war.

        if the USA was to say, abandon the alliance, or not honor Article 5. the British and French may just immediatley Nuke Russia if they move into eastern europe.

      • nomoredrama@lemmy.world
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        2 months ago

        Putin has already completed his demographic suicide. There are no men left to fight, or have children. They can build as many tanks and guns as they want, but there won’t be anyone to operate them.

        • njm1314@lemmy.world
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          2 months ago

          Yeah this is wishful thinking. This is the kind of thinking that has involved people failing in Russia for the last few hundred years. You don’t Outlast Russia in a game of numbers. That don’t work. Russia will happily go Toe to Toe with you and lose four times as many men. Not a problem for them. Never has been never will be.

    • DicJacobus@lemmy.world
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      2 months ago

      hey ML. did you know that sucking the dick of a fascist doesn’t make a very good socialist?

      • ☂️-@lemmy.ml
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        2 months ago

        hey fascist, you know you are the baddies right?

        are you aware and enjoy the death and destruction your country brings into the world, or do you kid yourself you are the good guys?