• golli@lemm.ee
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    3 months ago

    The incumbents will go broke.

    Who do you mean with that? Companies like OpenAI or Anthropic, or do you also include the likes of Google/Amazon/Microsoft?

    With the former I can see it, but the later also profit from providing the infrastructure (and have other profitable business), so imo those will be just fine.

    • alvvayson@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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      3 months ago

      I definitely see Google/Amazon/Microsoft shedding a huge amount of market cap when the time comes to write-off the 100s of billions they invested the past two years.

      They just don’t have any feasible path to recouping those investments.

      Sure, they’ll never go fully broke, that’s just a nice word for emphasis.

      • Kushan@lemmy.world
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        3 months ago

        I actually think Google is going to win this one, they’re the only ones making their own hardware to run their own models. Open ai are starting down that road but they’re years behind.

        When you look at the pricing of all the AI companies, Google’s is so much cheaper (orders of magnitude) and they’re not having to pay Nvidia billions to do it.

        • alvvayson@lemmy.dbzer0.com
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          3 months ago

          I actually agree with you, they definitely have the edge, but I still am skeptical that they will be able to maintain their valuation.

          I just don’t see a world where most people are coughing up more than $10 a month for AI.

          Most people will only use free AI and companies will mostly buy cheap AI.

          Running Deepseek locally is basically free. That’s the competition.