• 5 Posts
  • 485 Comments
Joined 3 months ago
cake
Cake day: January 12th, 2025

help-circle







  • And it’s going to be a lot worse this time, especially for the stock market. Even early in the pandemic, we had a decent understanding of the fatality rate of covid. Even in the worst case, if we never got a vaccine, and everyone got it, we would have been looking at losing 1-2% of the population. Absolutely horrific, but that’s the kind of pandemic that humanity has gotten over many, many times before. We would grieve, bury the dead, and move on. But economically speaking, we would be back to normal within a few years. Even early on, we knew we weren’t facing like, Black Death levels of mortality. This is why the stock market did pretty well during covid, especially once the stimulus started rolling out. Pandemics by their nature are temporary. In the long term, unless you’re looking at a massive chunk of your population dropping dead, they don’t do permanent damage to an economy.

    But Trump? He’s unraveling the entire post-WW2 economic and political order. And he doesn’t have any rational or coherent vision he’s trying to replace it with. He’s not starting some 20 year campaign to return to mercantilism. He’s not some Marxist revolutionary trying to implement international communism. He’s not trying to rationally and gradually transition the US economy to autarky. He’s just blindly lashing out like the senile old man he is. His brain is jelly, and he’s just throwing random bombs at the foundations of the global economy.

    If he was just trying to shift things to a new system, if he had some coherent vision he was aiming for, the economy could adapt. Businesses could adapt to the new normal, shift the priorities for their investments, and the world would move on. But the way he is doing things? What company wants to spend millions to move production back to the US? Sure, the tariffs of today may make that idea viable. But all it takes is the right bribery or flattery of Trump by a foreign leader today, and that tariff can disappear tomorrow. Companies can’t afford the risk of spending the millions it takes to return to domestic manufacturing, as there is no guarantee these tariffs will remain in place. Businesses need certainty. And certainty is the last thing you have in a nation ruled by a mad king.








  • Rights groups are already aware of hundreds of deaths in El Salvador’s prisons. Eye witness testimony reports prisoners dying from torture, prisoner-on-prisoner violence, and lack of medical care. And they report bodies being left in cells for days.

    Even if the guards aren’t executing people with their own hands, this place is clearly designed to cause mass death. Just look at the photos of it. Giant cells packed with dozens of people, political prisoners mixed with violent gang members. And there will be one guard in front of a cell holding a hundred people. And everyone there has life without parole; they literally have nothing to lose. How could such conditions cause anything but mass death?

    CECOT is a death camp designed around plausible deniability. The state doesn’t have to directly execute anyone; the whole camp is physically designed to make large scale prisoner-on-prisoner killings inevitable. If you have that many people locked up, with that little oversight, and everyone in there has a life without parole sentence? What keeps the guy next to you from strangling you just to get a double serving of lunch today? He already has life without parole. The innocent are locked up with the guilty there. There actually are a fair number of people there who in a moral justice system would be locked away for life. And those psychopaths are allowed to do whatever they want to the other prisoners.

    The real bitter irony is that El Salvador technically doesn’t have the death penalty. Courts can’t sentence people to death. So Bukele figured out a way to have the death penalty without having the death penalty. Every prisoner in there literally cannot receive a sentence harsher than the one they are already serving. Murder is effectively legal in CECOT.