I certainly wouldn’t bet on it, but recent history would tend ti agree with my original quip.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Rugby_Champions_Cup_finals

(When I made my initial joke, I actually hadn’t quite really realised just how close they’ve come or how regularly)

Whoever is in the final against them, probably…

Benetton could, but Castres at home have a tendency to be annoying as fuck to beat, and I’d be surprised no matter how well the former appear to be doing in the UrC.

Clermont winning away also wouldn’t be the biggest surprise ever, but I’d still not be putting money on them.

IMO, it’s Home wins all the way down, with the possible exception of LAR.

Or the classic narrow pass on the approach to a red light where I’m simply going to filter past away.