This curve has changed somewhat since this study in 2016. More efficient home insulation, remote working, and energy-efficient cooling systems have large impact in this pattern. But assuming you have a well-insulated home, setting your thermostat to maintain a consistent temperature throughout the day will shift this peak earlier and lower the peak load at sunset, when many people are returning home. More efficient heat pumps with variable pressure capabilities also helps this a lot, too.
Given just how many variables are involved, it’s better to assume peak cooling load to be mid-day and work toward equalizing that curve, rather than reacting to transient patterns that are subject to changes in customer behavior. Solar installations are just one aspect of this mitigation strategy, along with energy storage, energy-efficient cooling systems, and more efficient insulation and solar heat gain mitigation strategies.
If we’re discussing infrastructure improvements we might as well discuss home efficiency improvements as well.
I’m not really saying that the curve itself is changing (sorry, I was really not clear), only that those other variables reduce actual energy demand later in the day because of the efficiency gains and thermal banking that happens during the peak energy production. The overproduction during max solar hours is still a problem. Even if the utility doesn’t have a way of banking the extra supply, individual customers can do it themselves at a smaller scale, even if just by over-cooling their homes to reduce their demand after sundown.
Overall, the problem of the duck curve isn’t as much about maxing out the grid, it’s about the utility not having instantaneous power availability when the sun suddenly goes down. For people like me who work from home and have the flexibility to keep my home cool enough to need less cooling in the evening, having solar power means I can take advantage of that free energy and bank it to reduce my demand in the evening.
I get what you were saying now, but having solar would absolutely reduce my demand during peak hours.
Essentially, yea. That, and reduced demand from people setting their thermostats to relax their cooling temps while they’re away from home. We should honestly be grateful that we’re able to produce so much more energy from solar than what we need for active cooling. It’s a good problem to have.
From the pov of the utility, sure. But in terms of absolute energy use it’s possibly the only way to account for that fluctuation.
This is why this debate is so frustrating - producing energy from solar is of huge benefit, but instead of talking about how best to put that production to use, we’re talking about the problem it creates for utilities who don’t want to adapt to the distributed production.
This curve has changed somewhat since this study in 2016. More efficient home insulation, remote working, and energy-efficient cooling systems have large impact in this pattern. But assuming you have a well-insulated home, setting your thermostat to maintain a consistent temperature throughout the day will shift this peak earlier and lower the peak load at sunset, when many people are returning home. More efficient heat pumps with variable pressure capabilities also helps this a lot, too.
Given just how many variables are involved, it’s better to assume peak cooling load to be mid-day and work toward equalizing that curve, rather than reacting to transient patterns that are subject to changes in customer behavior. Solar installations are just one aspect of this mitigation strategy, along with energy storage, energy-efficient cooling systems, and more efficient insulation and solar heat gain mitigation strategies.
If we’re discussing infrastructure improvements we might as well discuss home efficiency improvements as well.
Do you have a source for the cooling off effect of the duck curve?
Following is a 2 year old article hinting an increase in the effect https://www.powermag.com/epri-head-duck-curve-now-looks-like-a-canyon/ afaik it hasn’t changed much but I’m open to news
I’m not really saying that the curve itself is changing (sorry, I was really not clear), only that those other variables reduce actual energy demand later in the day because of the efficiency gains and thermal banking that happens during the peak energy production. The overproduction during max solar hours is still a problem. Even if the utility doesn’t have a way of banking the extra supply, individual customers can do it themselves at a smaller scale, even if just by over-cooling their homes to reduce their demand after sundown.
Overall, the problem of the duck curve isn’t as much about maxing out the grid, it’s about the utility not having instantaneous power availability when the sun suddenly goes down. For people like me who work from home and have the flexibility to keep my home cool enough to need less cooling in the evening, having solar power means I can take advantage of that free energy and bank it to reduce my demand in the evening.
I get what you were saying now, but having solar would absolutely reduce my demand during peak hours.
It’s a neat idea to over-cool in order to reduce consumption later on!
Study or no study, you can see this problem in the real world https://www.caiso.com/todays-outlook#section-net-demand-trend
Ok now go just one step further and ask yourself what variables factor into this.
There’s a reason that pattern exists, and it isn’t because solar and cooling hours don’t align.
the difference between demand and net demand in that graph is purely solar/wind generation, isn’t it?
Essentially, yea. That, and reduced demand from people setting their thermostats to relax their cooling temps while they’re away from home. We should honestly be grateful that we’re able to produce so much more energy from solar than what we need for active cooling. It’s a good problem to have.
that thermostat factor reduces actual demand by a little, doesn’t impact the net difference per se.
From the pov of the utility, sure. But in terms of absolute energy use it’s possibly the only way to account for that fluctuation.
This is why this debate is so frustrating - producing energy from solar is of huge benefit, but instead of talking about how best to put that production to use, we’re talking about the problem it creates for utilities who don’t want to adapt to the distributed production.